An Forecasting Platform Trader Made $Nearly Half a Million on Wagers on Maduro's Downfall.
A bettor profited close to $500,000 on the ouster of Venezuela's president just before it was made public, sparking debate about whether someone profited from inside knowledge of the US operation.
Changing Odds in Predictions
Predictions made on the forecasting site, a blockchain-based service, that the leader would be removed from office by the end of January increased in the hours before Donald Trump announced on the weekend that Maduro had been seized.
A single trader, which registered on the site in December and placed four wagers, all on Venezuela, profited a total of $436,000 from a modest bet of over $32,000.
It remains unclear. The anonymous account had only a string of letters and numbers for identification.
Probability Spikes Before Announcement
Platform data shows that participants assessed the probability of the president's removal at just under 7% in the late afternoon of the prior Friday.
Yet the odds had increased to 11% by the end of the day and skyrocketed in the first hours of the next day, suggesting a sudden change in market sentiment immediately prior to the social media post was made.
"That trade has all the hallmarks of a transaction based on non-public details," said an industry expert.
A handful of other individuals also earned large payouts from bets on the same outcome.
Political Attention Grows
Elected officials are growing concerned.
Proposed legislation introduced on Monday would prevent federal workers from placing bets on prediction markets if they have "confidential government knowledge" related to a market.
The Prediction Market Landscape
Prediction markets have become increasingly popular in recent years, with users able to wager on everything from sports outcomes to political events.
This sector were examined under the previous administration. But it has received a warmer welcome during the present political climate.
Insider trading is against the law in the stock market, but there are more ambiguous rules in the event betting arena.
A company executive for another major platform said their site "explicitly prohibits insider trading of any form."